Promotion criteria explained more!

[Dave Deacon]

Just seen this on the Mousehole website .................

Promotion criteria

Details of the FA’s arrangements for promotion this season from the Western League Premier (Step 5 to Step 4) have become clearer.  In summary, for Step 5 clubs:

Finishing in top spot means automatic promotion

If finishing as runners-up:

– The ten teams across the 16 Step 5 leagues with the best points-per-game are automatically promoted

– The remaining six teams each play a promotion/relegation decider away against a bottom-but-one team at Step 4

In addition:

Clubs must be eligible for promotion to Step 4 by meeting the ground grading requirements at Step 5

Clubs declining promotion are liable to be relegated

[baldy]

Hopefully this is the final “shuffle” to complete Step 4. 
Will they do the same at Steps 5 & 6? Can’t see why not.

[Gary Hocking]

“The ten teams across the 16 Step 5 leagues with the best points-per-game are automatically promoted”

The inevitable consequence of this being that teams finishing 2nd in leagues with several weak teams will tend to earn more PPG than teams in leagues where on their day anyone can beat anyone, therefore making it easier to get promoted out of a weak league than a strong one 🙄🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[Easterfield]

I become more confused each time I read up about this. My understanding is that there are temporary arrangements for the end of this season because many of the step 1-4 leagues are running short; starting with one missing team in the National League where Macclesfield were never replaced running right through to Parkway’s league which is also one short. Also National Leagues North and South are being increased to 24 clubs each next season.   

The approach is to relegate fewer clubs than normal although, because of all the recent changes, it’s hard to be sure what yet constitutes “normal”. The crunch point here is that, whoever finishes runners-up in the Western League, needs to get as many points on the board in addition to securing second spot. 

If’s it to be a play-off, it won’t necessarily be against a club in the division to which the club is hoping to get promoted. That depends on how well or badly clubs from that league have done compared with the other seven step 4 leagues. 

Brightside on the Non League Matters website has a spreadsheet for this type of thing. His latest version, from before this weekend’s fixtures, has Mousehole currently in second place in the Western League. But their points-per-game ratio isn’t yet sufficient to put them in one of the ten automatic places.

His current projections, which are likely to be different again next week and the week after and so on, have Barking, Cinderford, Hertford, Histon, Sutton Common Rovers and Tadcaster as the possible step 4 clubs facing off against Boldmere St Michael, Eccleshill United, Mousehole, Skelmersdale, Stansted and Westbury from step 5. On the basis of this being “regionalised” as much as possible he’s projecting a trip for Mousehole to Sutton Common Rovers in suburban south London. Against this he’s arguing Cinderford v Westbury would be a more likely pairing.                       

               

[Easterfield]

On 20/02/2022 at 16:58, baldy said:

Will they do the same at Steps 5 & 6? Can’t see why not.

This is where it becomes difficult in knowing what will eventually become “normal”. Beyond this season I think it’s something like this:

Up to thirty-two clubs will be swapped each year between steps 4 and 5. That’s potentially four down from each of eight step 4 leagues; two up from each of the sixteen step 5 leagues.

Bottom two from each step 4 (16) + winners of each step 5 (16) automatic down/up .

3rd/4th bottom from each step 4 (16) + runners-up of each step 5 (16) playing-off; winner to step 4, loser to step 5.

Thirty-two swapping each year between the sixteen step 5 and sixteen step 6 set-ups. Two-up, two-down with the second step 6 promotion spot being decided by play-offs within the division.  

The exception, of course, is the Peninsula League which is really leagues 16a and 16b at step 6. Here it’s the just the winners to produce two promoted clubs.    

This would suggest we've a good chance of seeing a step 5 to 4 play-off at the end of any future season. Happy to defer if anybody knows anything different.

[The Observer__]

4 hours ago, baldy said:

Hopefully this is the final “shuffle” to complete Step 4. 
Will they do the same at Steps 5 & 6? Can’t see why not.

I assumed this is how it is every season from now on? Not a reshuffle as such.  

[Dave Deacon]

1 hour ago, The Observer__ said:

I assumed this is how it is every season from now on? Not a reshuffle as such.  

Yeah I was the same in thinking this is how it will be from hereon! Well that is until the FA come up with some other idea!

So complicated now and in my opinion unnecessary!

[Ian Pethick]

9 hours ago, Dave Deacon said:

Yeah I was the same in thinking this is how it will be from hereon! Well that is until the FA come up with some other idea!

So complicated now and in my opinion unnecessary!

The FA have done a great job here in making something seemingly so simple in promotion and relegation, so complicated.

[Dave Deacon]

18 minutes ago, Way Of The Park said:

The FA have done a great job here in making something seemingly so simple in promotion and relegation, so complicated.

Got to agree with you there.

Some further clarification on this subject:-

If all the steps 1 to 4 are full in future seasons then it's 16 play off games and no PPG.

But of course always likely that even if full in August, someone somewhere going bust during the season could change that!

Reason so many on PPG this year is because some leagues going from 22 to 24 - I think maybe Truro’s is one!

24! Far too many in my opinion!

[Dave Deacon]

14 hours ago, Easterfield said:

His current projections, which are likely to be different again next week and the week after and so on, have Barking, Cinderford, Hertford, Histon, Sutton Common Rovers and Tadcaster as the possible step 4 clubs facing off against Boldmere St Michael, Eccleshill United, Mousehole, Skelmersdale, Stansted and Westbury from step 5. On the basis of this being “regionalised” as much as possible he’s projecting a trip for Mousehole to Sutton Common Rovers in suburban south London. Against this he’s arguing Cinderford v Westbury would be a more likely pairing.  

The FA have said any play-offs will as far as possible be regional

[Easterfield]

51 minutes ago, Dave Deacon said:

The FA have said any play-offs will as far as possible be regional

Indeed but, as I read it, that’s in the Lap of the Gods. Imagine if the six step 4 clubs come from the six most southerly leagues; the six step 5 leagues come from the most northerly leagues. 

Last week’s projections on Non League Matters - which will probably have changed again this week - came up with this:

 

Tadcaster	NPE	v	Eccleshill United	NEP
Cinderford Town	SLS	v	Westbury United	HLP
Witham Town	ILN	v	Stansted	ESL
Histon	NPM	v	Boldmere St M	MLP
Hertford Town	SLC	v	Skelmersdale U	NWP
Sutton Common Rovers	ILSC	v	Mousehole	WNP

 

That looks barmy but trying plotting those on a map and pairing sensibly!

This is so complicated that you almost hope that the very people who look into this type of stuff have got it wrong. But I suspect they haven't.
 

[Ian Pethick]

1 hour ago, Easterfield said:

Indeed but, as I read it, that’s in the Lap of the Gods. Imagine if the six step 4 clubs come from the six most southerly leagues; the six step 5 leagues come from the most northerly leagues. 

Last week’s projections on Non League Matters - which will probably have changed again this week - came up with this:

 

Tadcaster	NPE	v	Eccleshill United	NEP
Cinderford Town	SLS	v	Westbury United	HLP
Witham Town	ILN	v	Stansted	ESL
Histon	NPM	v	Boldmere St M	MLP
Hertford Town	SLC	v	Skelmersdale U	NWP
Sutton Common Rovers	ILSC	v	Mousehole	WNP

 

That looks barmy but trying plotting those on a map and pairing sensibly!

This is so complicated that you almost hope that the very people who look into this type of stuff have got it wrong. But I suspect they haven't.
 

On the positive side, if this does come to pass, I will be making the journey down to the far reaches of SW London to cheer on Mousehole. If I had said that to somebody who followed them in the Combo just 15 seasons ago, they would have looked at me and wondered what I had consumed at lunchtime. 

[Easterfield]

Interesting points, Dave. You’ve got me started. 

Yes, I’m sure clubs will fall by the wayside during the course of any season. I’m a fan of the system but do wonder if it’s become over-blown. We’re now talking about 320 clubs at steps 1-4. Are there really 320 suitable and capable clubs? Throw in the “ninety-two” and you’re at club 413 before you start with step 5 and the FA Vase.  

Going to twenty-four in Truro’s league, with extra midweek fixtures to accommodate, seems over the top. And, with other vacancies elsewhere at steps 1-4, I reckon that’s eleven extra clubs to be found next season within a “system” that’s staying the same. The FA way is to reprieve clubs from relegation more than it is to grant extra promotion. Like a lot of this, that becomes confusing because it’s rarely explained.

Another thing that’s rarely explained is why flexible boundaries are used instead of fixed. I suppose the answer starts with asking what you would do if the four bottom teams in the National League were neighbours from a relatively small area. And so on and so on down the system. Flexible boundaries are the “least worst” option to me but need explaining. After all, people are accustomed to such things being fixed. They may also anticipate that there's a degree of boundary correlation between each level. Well, no, there isn't. 

Once you have flexible boundaries you have “lateral transfers”. Also, because long-established leagues - with old names - are managing a brand new system there are apparently illogical promotions and relegations. Promotion from one level of the Southern to another of the Isthmian? Relegation from the top tier of the Southern to a lower tier of Northern Premier? And what’s the difference between the two Southern Premiers? Or the three non-premier sections of the Northern Premier League? I know but only because the small-print interests me. It's not exactly user-friendly. The packaging is confusing the product inside.

But we’re lucky. The Southern Premier South will always (well, for the moment anyway) be the first twenty-two step 3 clubs counting from Land’s End, the Southern One South the first twenty step 4, the Western the first twenty step 5.

[Easterfield]

1 hour ago, Way Of The Park said:

On the positive side, if this does come to pass, I will be making the journey down to the far reaches of SW London to cheer on Mousehole. If I had said that to somebody who followed them in the Combo just 15 seasons ago, they would have looked at me and wondered what I had consumed at lunchtime. 

Now I've discovered this I'm getting sucked in. Sutton Common Rovers lost at home on Saturday. This would weaken their PPG. Does that draw the team in their position in their league closer to automatic relegation?

I shall follow at 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eZrCULE0lQsw_iSvLQNvRsZvOizYC-cdLP4oL41t7kU/edit#gid=1394759433

Use the tabs for plenty of other stuff.  The credit needs to be given to a poster called Brightside.

  

 

 

[Dave Deacon]

4 hours ago, Easterfield said:

Indeed but, as I read it, that’s in the Lap of the Gods. Imagine if the six step 4 clubs come from the six most southerly leagues; the six step 5 leagues come from the most northerly leagues. 

Last week’s projections on Non League Matters - which will probably have changed again this week - came up with this:

 

Tadcaster	NPE	v	Eccleshill United	NEP
Cinderford Town	SLS	v	Westbury United	HLP
Witham Town	ILN	v	Stansted	ESL
Histon	NPM	v	Boldmere St M	MLP
Hertford Town	SLC	v	Skelmersdale U	NWP
Sutton Common Rovers	ILSC	v	Mousehole	WNP

 

That looks barmy but trying plotting those on a map and pairing sensibly!

This is so complicated that you almost hope that the very people who look into this type of stuff have got it wrong. But I suspect they haven't.
 

Surely Westbury would go to Sutton common and Mousehole to cinderford, FA won't give one a local derby to make another travel 250 miles!

[Easterfield]

1 hour ago, Dave Deacon said:

Surely Westbury would go to Sutton common and Mousehole to cinderford, FA won't give one a local derby to make another travel 250 miles!

Thought that too. All hypothetical at this stage. Reading Brightside's previous posts he's one to cheerfully admit to his own fallibility and keen to stress it's "illiustrative only". It's probably one for the final day of the season. A result in Northumberland could theoretically decide if the Western League runners-up have to play-off or not. 

But the "numbers game" could still produce a relatively local play-off.  With their recent strengthening Barnstaple will be interesting. They could lift themselves off the bottom but still fall short of a sufficient PPG.

Credit to Mousehole for flagging this up.

[le boss]

18 hours ago, Easterfield said:

Thought that too. All hypothetical at this stage. Reading Brightside's previous posts he's one to cheerfully admit to his own fallibility and keen to stress it's "illiustrative only". It's probably one for the final day of the season. A result in Northumberland could theoretically decide if the Western League runners-up have to play-off or not. 

But the "numbers game" could still produce a relatively local play-off.  With their recent strengthening Barnstaple will be interesting. They could lift themselves off the bottom but still fall short of a sufficient PPG.

Credit to Mousehole for flagging this up.

Congratulations to Mousehole for achieving the play off spot. I must have slept longer than I thought and missed all those fixtures in March and April. 

[The Town Man]

Whilst you slept Le Boss, Helston won every game to pip Tavistock for the Western League Championship and Falmouth lost every game to finish in 5th.......  and you missed it all!

Should have gone to bed Earlier!!!!

[Easterfield]

Ha! Sleeping through this topic until the last kick of the Western League season is probably the best bet. The projections are based solely on the season abruptly finishing and PPG counting. Who could ever imagine that happening?

Not sure if we can say more than the Western League runners-up having a 5-in-8 chance of automatic promotion; a 3-in-8 chance of a play-off possibly hundreds of miles away. PPG changes with every game; you may be able to project but you can't predict.

I'd set the alarm for an hour or so after the final whistle. By then somebody online will have worked out the teams and come up with possible pairings. The FA will confirm the teams a while later with, more than likely, a different set of pairings.