Vets League 5th/12th Feb

[ant.tux]

5th Feb

Perranporth 0-0 Grampound 

12th Feb

AFC Western 3-1 St Dennis 

Constantine 0-3 Downderry Rovers

Holmans Cruisers 3-3 Halsetown 

http://www.cornwallveteransleague.co.uk

[Bumdingo]

Do today's results mean Royal Par can't win the league?

[Cameron Hague]

15 hours ago, Bumdingo said:

Do today's results mean Royal Par can't win the league?

Not quite. By my calculations there are 15,180 possible permutations of results remaining of the 46 games to play. Of those permutations there are (roughly) 5000 that could provide Royal Par with the league title. Surprisingly high!

If, for the sake of argument and not wanting to over complicate the mathematics, we assume that any team can beat any other team on their day (in other words, all teams are equal), that would mean there is a 33% chance of Royal Par winning league, roughly equating to old style bookie odds of 2/1.

Now, I wouldn't take that bet on at those odds, given the current circumstances.

 

However, taking this seasons form into account (including cup games), Royal Par have won one out of eight. If we consider this and that all the permutations require Royal Par to win all eight remaining league games, the chance of that occurring, based on this recent form is 1 in 16,777,216.

Now, you probably buy Lottery Tickets every week and believe that one day you'll win. Those odds up there are approximately the same.

I say, we will win the Lottery. I'm buying another ticket.

 

Disclaimer: All the above was done on the back of a beer mat and with an iPhone calculator using podgy fingers that were mainly holding pork scratching's. Do not make financial decisions based of the information above.

[Dave Bartlam]

I'm impressed!

[B Manning]

Good candidate for the next Bank of England governor methinks.